As many no doubt know, or will know soon, the markets have crashed. Not exactly what many on the West Coast like to wake up to, but that’s that. Forbes, never one to mince words, has already called it the June Market Disaster.
There are a few things to keep mind, however:
Unemployment is not going away for years and years, regardless of who wins. If Romney wins we can expect structural unemployment for close to a decade. If Obama wins, well, just about the same. The numbers don’t lie. The economy requires 7.2 million gained jobs to replace those “lost” and an additional 100,000 a month to keep up with population growth. If the job market returns to the rapid pace of the 1990s — adding 2.15 million private-sector jobs a year, double the 2001-2007 pace — the U.S. wouldn’t get back to a 5% unemployment rate until late 2017, Rutgers University economist Joseph Seneca estimated. And that assumes no recession between now and then. “Even with some very optimistic assumptions, it’s a long road back.” Link.
And some people on the Fed think we are already at ‘maximum’ employment. Awks.
That said, while I don’t believe that the economy is the only thing that matters to voters (and a good economy means a certain election of the Obama in November) it’s hard to spin this as anything other than a disaster for his campaign.